Archive for the trading system Category

TTW (“Trades That Work”): Puretick’s (Alex Wasilewski’s) Trading Strategies

Posted in advisory service, education, trading strategy, trading system on 2011-01-17 by Strategesis

From Puretick:

One of our goals at Pure Tick is to get you trading like a pro on your own! In addition to providing trading alert signals, much of your time in the service will be spent soaking up knowledge on the markets. We teach standard concepts such as support and resistance, candle formations, bounce points, market internal indications and various other profitable setups used by Alex…

In reality that is the only hope for the newbie to graduate to the ranks of the professional. I am sure most new traders have read a number of trading books where the author proposes or in many cases rehashes a “holy grail” trading setup. Many times they simply plagiarize and rename the method.

When the new trader finishes the book and starts trading the next morning, the results are worse than expected. Sadly for the new trader, many of these methods—Trend Following or Counter Trend–are not that bad. Many do have a positive expected outcome over time. We have found that most methods average about a 55% success rate if every signal is taken. What many new traders don’t realize is that a method with a 55% success rate can easily have 5 losing trades in a row. Very few new traders multiply the average stop loss of that particular “holy grail” method times 5 to even get an idea of what that method might lose right out of the gate.

The prime trading methodology we use at TTW, and what we aggressively suggest for the new trader is to trade with the main trend of the day, and yet to avoid chasing the move once the trend has been determined. By definition this means we buy when a new momentum high has been established but we wait for a pullback. The opposite applies to short trades.

Right away a reader might say, “Yes, lots of trading gurus do that. What makes you guys different?”

Continued

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Expectancy

Posted in expectancy on 2010-12-29 by Strategesis

From Trader Mike:

“Expectancy along with position sizing are probably the two most important factors in trading/investing success. Sadly most people have never even heard of the concept. Out of the 30 or so trading books I’ve read only a few even touch on any aspect of money management. Only one of those handful of books discussed expectancy. In simple terms, expectancy is the average amount you can expect to win (or lose) per dollar at risk. Here’s the formula for expectancy:

Expectancy = (Probability of Win * Average Win) – (Probability of Loss * Average Loss)”