Archive for the events Category

August 8, 2011…in an alternate reality

Posted in education, events, market analysis on 2011-09-19 by Strategesis

Had US stocks made new highs on 8 August, 2011, instead of completing a 20% downmove over only 2 weeks, the headlines would have been “Record Earnings Propel S&P 500 To 3-Year High,” “Confident Bond Market Lifts Stocks,” and “Dow Soars On Resolution Of Debt-Ceiling Crisis.”

And each headline would have been a lie—not because there weren’t record corporate earnings (there were,) not because the bond market wasn’t confident (it was,) and not because the debt-ceiling crisis hadn’t just been resolved (it had,) but because the premise that news explains or causes stock price action is false. As is irrefutably evidenced by the fact that the facts about the external world (earnings, bond markets, political events) asserted by those hypothetical headlines were all undeniably true.

Pervasive good economic news has a very high correlation with market tops, and pervasive bad economic news has a very high correlation with market bottoms. For example, compare and contrast the economic news in late 1999 to that in early 2009. Were that not so, economic news would feed on itself, causing both the markets and economy to accelerate ever faster in one direction of the other, with nothing to stop it.

AAPL surges higher, closes above $411

Posted in AAPL, events, stocks on 2011-09-19 by Strategesis

AAPL | Monthly Bars | Mid-1990s to present


(Click on image for larger view)

Trees don’t grow to the sky, but the trend is strongly up. It could easily continue for months yet before any sort of significant downmove.

So much for the idea that AAPL would crash on the departure of Steve Jobs from the CEO post. Moral of the story: Don’t predict how the market will react to news. Let the market tell you what it thinks the news means. It’s always right….

NYSE Holidays, 2001-2011

Posted in events on 2011-04-01 by Strategesis

Mon, 17 Jan 2011:     MartinLutherKingDay
Mon, 21 Feb 2011:     WashingtonsBirthday
Fri, 22 Apr 2011:     GoodFriday
Mon, 30 May 2011:     MemorialDay
Mon, 04 Jul 2011:     IndependenceDay
Mon, 05 Sep 2011:     LaborDay
Thu, 24 Nov 2011:     Thanksgiving
Mon, 26 Dec 2011:     Christmas  (observed)

Fri, 01 Jan 2010:     NewYearsDay
Mon, 18 Jan 2010:     MartinLutherKingDay
Mon, 15 Feb 2010:     WashingtonsBirthday
Fri, 02 Apr 2010:     GoodFriday
Mon, 31 May 2010:     MemorialDay
Mon, 05 Jul 2010:     IndependenceDay  (observed)
Mon, 06 Sep 2010:     LaborDay
Thu, 25 Nov 2010:     Thanksgiving
Fri, 24 Dec 2010:     Christmas  (observed)

Thu, 01 Jan 2009:     NewYearsDay
Mon, 19 Jan 2009:     MartinLutherKingDay
Mon, 16 Feb 2009:     WashingtonsBirthday
Fri, 10 Apr 2009:     GoodFriday
Mon, 25 May 2009:     MemorialDay
Fri, 03 Jul 2009:     IndependenceDay  (observed)
Mon, 07 Sep 2009:     LaborDay
Thu, 26 Nov 2009:     Thanksgiving
Fri, 25 Dec 2009:     Christmas

Tue, 01 Jan 2008:     NewYearsDay
Mon, 21 Jan 2008:     MartinLutherKingDay
Mon, 18 Feb 2008:     WashingtonsBirthday
Fri, 21 Mar 2008:     GoodFriday
Mon, 26 May 2008:     MemorialDay
Fri, 04 Jul 2008:     IndependenceDay
Mon, 01 Sep 2008:     LaborDay
Thu, 27 Nov 2008:     Thanksgiving
Thu, 25 Dec 2008:     Christmas

Mon, 01 Jan 2007:     NewYearsDay
Tue, 02 Jan 2007:     DayOfMourning-GeraldFord
Mon, 15 Jan 2007:     MartinLutherKingDay
Mon, 19 Feb 2007:     WashingtonsBirthday
Fri, 06 Apr 2007:     GoodFriday
Mon, 28 May 2007:     MemorialDay
Wed, 04 Jul 2007:     IndependenceDay
Mon, 03 Sep 2007:     LaborDay
Thu, 22 Nov 2007:     Thanksgiving
Tue, 25 Dec 2007:     Christmas

Mon, 02 Jan 2006:     NewYearsDay  (observed)
Mon, 16 Jan 2006:     MartinLutherKingDay
Mon, 20 Feb 2006:     WashingtonsBirthday
Fri, 14 Apr 2006:     GoodFriday
Mon, 29 May 2006:     MemorialDay
Tue, 04 Jul 2006:     IndependenceDay
Mon, 04 Sep 2006:     LaborDay
Thu, 23 Nov 2006:     Thanksgiving
Mon, 25 Dec 2006:     Christmas

Mon, 17 Jan 2005:     MartinLutherKingDay
Mon, 21 Feb 2005:     WashingtonsBirthday
Fri, 25 Mar 2005:     GoodFriday
Mon, 30 May 2005:     MemorialDay
Mon, 04 Jul 2005:     IndependenceDay
Mon, 05 Sep 2005:     LaborDay
Thu, 24 Nov 2005:     Thanksgiving
Mon, 26 Dec 2005:     Christmas  (observed)

Thu, 01 Jan 2004:     NewYearsDay
Mon, 19 Jan 2004:     MartinLutherKingDay
Mon, 16 Feb 2004:     WashingtonsBirthday
Fri, 09 Apr 2004:     GoodFriday
Mon, 31 May 2004:     MemorialDay
Fri, 11 Jun 2004:     PresidentialFuneral-RonaldReagan
Mon, 05 Jul 2004:     IndependenceDay  (observed)
Mon, 06 Sep 2004:     LaborDay
Thu, 25 Nov 2004:     Thanksgiving
Fri, 24 Dec 2004:     Christmas  (observed)

Wed, 01 Jan 2003:     NewYearsDay
Mon, 20 Jan 2003:     MartinLutherKingDay
Mon, 17 Feb 2003:     WashingtonsBirthday
Fri, 18 Apr 2003:     GoodFriday
Mon, 26 May 2003:     MemorialDay
Fri, 04 Jul 2003:     IndependenceDay
Mon, 01 Sep 2003:     LaborDay
Thu, 27 Nov 2003:     Thanksgiving
Thu, 25 Dec 2003:     Christmas

Tue, 01 Jan 2002:     NewYearsDay
Mon, 21 Jan 2002:     MartinLutherKingDay
Mon, 18 Feb 2002:     WashingtonsBirthday
Fri, 29 Mar 2002:     GoodFriday
Mon, 27 May 2002:     MemorialDay
Thu, 04 Jul 2002:     IndependenceDay
Mon, 02 Sep 2002:     LaborDay
Thu, 28 Nov 2002:     Thanksgiving
Wed, 25 Dec 2002:     Christmas

Mon, 01 Jan 2001:     NewYearsDay
Mon, 15 Jan 2001:     MartinLutherKingDay
Mon, 19 Feb 2001:     WashingtonsBirthday
Fri, 13 Apr 2001:     GoodFriday
Mon, 28 May 2001:     MemorialDay
Wed, 04 Jul 2001:     IndependenceDay
Mon, 03 Sep 2001:     LaborDay
Tue, 11 Sep 2001:     WorldTradeCenterEvent
Wed, 12 Sep 2001:     WorldTradeCenterEvent
Thu, 13 Sep 2001:     WorldTradeCenterEvent
Fri, 14 Sep 2001:     WorldTradeCenterEvent
Thu, 22 Nov 2001:     Thanksgiving
Tue, 25 Dec 2001:     Christmas