In the last newsletter, I looked for a resumption of the rally and, once again, the market obliged! After a final dip to 1203 last Monday (my projection for a low on the SPX was 1200-1205), the index took off and closed the week at the high of the move, rallying 62 points!
My Point & Figure analysis had indicated an initial pause at 1251, but when it became obvious that the index wanted to go higher, 1263-1265 came into play. Since the SPX closed at 1265 on Friday, we have to assume that the move is probably done, although the momentum may cause it to spill over into some weak count up to 1270. This will be determined when the market resumes trading.
What normally follows the realization of a projection, is a wave of profit-taking which causes temporary supply and a pullback in prices. I expect a near-term peak to be reached, perhaps as early as Tuesday. Correction from that level should be short-lived, but could last a few days. If I tried to forecast a retracement level at this time, I would be guessing. I will not be able to give a correct estimate until the move has been completed.
Of all the indices, the DJIA has had the strongest rally. It overcome its October 28 close by thirty points and its December close by nearly a hundred points. This may encourage some additional buying after the holiday. If so, the SPX would follow suit and rise above its December intra-day high of 1267. This is why we need to wait until Tuesday to put a price on the rally top.
Last week’s market action is bullish in itself, but possibly even more bullish is that, by overcoming its October and December tops, the DJIA is giving some credibility to the potential inverse Head & Shoulders pattern which formed over that time frame. (We’ll analyze this and other technical factors next, in the Daily Chart of the DJIA.) My projection for the entire rally from 1075 is at least 1293. If this turns out to be the top of minor wave 2, as is expected by many EW analysts, it should be followed by a serious decline. If it is not, the appraisal of the longer-term structure will have to be revised.