Market Turning Points | Andre Gratian | 2011-10-09


Here is what I wrote in my last newsletter: “The SPX made a double-top at 1220 that created a pattern on the Point & Figure chart from which we can estimate the extent of the decline by taking a count across the 1195 line. We come up with two well-defined targets: One to 1080, and the other to 1040. These are closely correlated by Fibonacci projections. With the 3-yr cycle low about a week away, we could not ask for better conditions to predict the intermediate low.”

The SPX made its low on Tuesday 10/4 at 1074.77, and has not looked back since! It closed out the week at 1155.46 after reaching a high of 1171 on Friday.

On Thursday, I sent the following update to subscribers:

From: Andre Gratian Sent: Thursday, October 06, 2011 9:07 AM Subject: Market update

(I will let the two quotes above speak for themselves about the quality of the information that is dispensed to subscribers.)

What now? It looks as if, after the SPX reached its projection on Friday, the indices are beginning to form a short-term top. As of the close there was still no sell signal but plenty of warning in the indicators, as we will see when we look at the charts.

The action of the market last week confirms the view that we have started a counter-trend rally in the bear market that started in May for the SPX, and July for the QQQ. I don’t have a specific target for the top of this move, but 1215 (a 50% retracement) and perhaps 1248 (.618 retracement) are good bets. I will try to be more precise after the Point & Figure pattern has progressed enough to warrant a projection.

Let’s look at charts!


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