Trouble ahead, trouble behind…

US Dollar Index | Monthly Bars

(Click on chart for larger view)

The chart speaks for itself, if you know how to read it: Significant upswing in the US Dollar index has probably started, based on a) the break of the downward trend channel line, b) the upsurge in momentum as measured by my proprietary technical indicators, and c) the oversold condition of the market.

However, the overall trend in the USD is still down. Also, technical analysis only provides the relative odds, and does not forecast the future with certainty. Nothing can do that. So believe what you see, and take to heart the fundamental principle of market analysis: Trends can and do reverse, but at any given moment, a trend is far more likely to continue than to reverse.

That being said, the history over the past decade or so is that whenever the USD rises on the scale of monthly price bars (by more than the usual meaningless fluctuations,) world markets and economies fall.


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