Market Turning Points | Andre Gratian | 2011-05-08


For the past two weeks, I have stressed that oil, gold, and the dollar were reaching significant Point & Figure targets. It turned out that these projections were only off by a fraction. Here were the projections, the actual price reached, and Friday’s closes.

  Oil (WTIC) Gold (GLD) Dollar
Projections 115 153-154 74
(P&F counts)   154-156  
Reversal price: 114.88 (5/2) 153.61 (5/2) 72.69 (5/4)
Price on 5/6 97.33 (lo 94.77) 145.30 (lo 143.47) 74.92 (hi 74.93)

I also had a target of 1370 for the SPX. The high on 5/2 was 170.58, before the correction started. So far, the low for the decline has been 1329.17, and it closed the week at 1340.20.

I am supplying these figures for a couple of reasons: first, to illustrate the immense value of using P&F analysis, and second, to show that these wild price swings may indicate that the stock market is at an important juncture.

Based on the accumulation pattern that was created during the correction into mid-March, there are higher potential P&F targets for the SPX. Also, that correction formed a H&S configuration which has been validated by a clear break-out above the neck line. The normal projection for this H&S pattern closely matches the more liberal count taken across the P&F base.

The pull-back which occurred last week could simply be a deeper than normal return to the H&S neck line. However, the severe corrections in commodities suggest that this is more than a minor consolidation, and it creates some doubt about the ability of the SPX to reach its higher targets.

By the same token, we will see that sentiment is still not suggesting that we are at an important top. This leaves us with a greater than normal challenge to determine the future course of the market. Let’s turn to the charts and see if we can derive some technical clues which will clarify its current position.



Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: